- GumbelProbability (pdf file 3794KB)
- GumbelProbability (nb file 41KB)
- Assignment (pdf file 33KB)
- Assignment (nb file 862KB)
- reference (pdf file 121KB)
- data file(xlsx file 801KB)

1. Data for your assignments are provided in the above web site.

2. DailyRainfallover25mm.xlsx includes the daily rainfall more than or equal to 25mm for each of 102 stations.

Get your data from above Excel file. The sheet number of your data is shown in the attendance sheet on May 23rd. Confirm your data specification and then sign on the attendance sheet. The observation period is 1940-2016 (77years).

Your assignment is to check trend and analyze frequency of your specified data.

Your report submitted to the specified report box at C-cluster by 5:00 pm, June 8th will be assessed.

In your report, don't include all the process but show just essential results.

1) Pick up AMS from your data and plot time series and histogram of AMS. Check trend of the AMS with appropriate method.

2) Pick up events exceeding the minimum value of the above AMS from your data and plot histogram of the events. Plot the time series of the number of events each year, then, check the trend of number of events.

3) Assess with AMS:

(3-1)Plot the AMS on Gumbel probability paper with Cunnane plot. (Gumbel probability paper is distributed in my web as both pdf and Mathematica notebook).

(3-2)Estimate the parameters of Gumbel distribution and GEV distribution by L-moment method or MLE(Show which method you used).

(3-3)Fit Gumbel distribution and GEV distribution to the AMS with parameters estimated in (3-2), then add fitting curves to the probability plot of (3-1).

(3-4)Estimate 150 and 100 year return levels (quantile of 150 and 100 year return period) with Gumbel distribution and GEV.

4) Assess with POT:

(4-1)Plot the POT of 2) on Gumbel probability paper with Cunnane plot. (Gumbel probability paper is distributed in my web as both pdf and Mathematica notebook).

(4-2)Plot SMEF, then, select suitable threshold and re-select new POT with it.

(4-3)Draw new probability plot with the new POT.

(4-4)Fit Exp distribution and GP distribution to the new POT with parameters estimated (use threshold as location parameter), then add fitting curves to the probability plot of (4-3).

(4-5)Estimate 150 and 100 year return levels (quantile of 150 and 100 year return period) with Exp distribution and GP.

5) Compare AMS result with POT, discuss with them and conclude your judgment.

6) Others : Any comment to my lecture

Please save the file by "right click".

To open the ".nb" extension file, you need Mathematica installed on your PC.

Please obtain Mathematica (trial version) from here.

URL:http://www.wolfram.com/mathematica/trial/

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